Real Estate Confidence Trends Down


Well look at this.  Perhaps the rumors of the beginning of an American real estate recovery were just that.RECI_September

Our very own Real Estate Confidence Index (RECI), which measures the perceived confidence in the market by real estate professionals recorded its first drop in confidence since the Index went live in June – reporting 5.83 (out of 10) at the national level for the month of September, down 0.85 percent versus the August reading of 5.88.

Pressuring the RECI this month were the long term outlook variables within the Index, with both the 3-6 month and 12-18 month forward looking readings turning negative versus a month ago.

However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom.  The Current Sentiment variable continued its upward momentum, for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting positive market activity and confidence amongst real estate brokers and agents, during the survey period.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, this variable measured 5.06 in September, up from 4.96 in August and 4.76 in June.

To give you an idea of how the RECI has preformed in the months leading up to this September data here is the charted progress of all the variables we track:  (click for full-size)


To add a more human dimension to this data, we also gather any other thoughts our respondents may have on either their local or state market.  Some of the choice quotes from this months survey are as follows:

“High foreclosure ratio. Homes are selling faster due to the lower prices and interest rates and government-assistance programs.” -California

“More jobs are opening up, which will be a boost in our county.” -Indiana

“There is a continual glut of foreclosures, making it next to impossible to sell houses voluntarily. The buyers who can get (qualified) lack motivation.” -Arizona

If you are interested in reading more on this month’s finding you can check out the featured article over at Inman News.

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